Several year ago I read the book The Dice Man, by Luke Rhinehart; “If that dice has a ‘one’ face up, I thought, I’m going downstairs to rape Arlene. If it’s a one, … …the other numbers mean bed, the dice is cast. Who am I to question the dice?’
Now reading the official MoP manual I came across an example about assessing the likelihood of change initiative success and failure. The Boston Consulting Group identified that success or failure ultimately comes down to a combination of the following elements, which the BCG refers to as DICE:
- The Duration (D) of the project or the time between major review milestones
- The performance Integrity (I) of the project team
- The organizational Commitment to change, specifically that of senior managers (C1) and local-area staff (C2)
- The additional organizational Effort (E) required for implementation above and beyond usual work requirements
So who am I to question the dice?
If you go tot heir website (http://dice.bcg.com) you get access tot their model, videos explaining the model and you could download the article Transformation: How to Load the Dice in Your Favor.
A simple model, which will helps you to identify problem initiatives in your portfolio. Using the model via the webpage, will give you an explanation of the score in the range win, worry, woe, and options (including videos) to improve the scores of the individual element.
The model is build around the following formula D+2I+2C1+2C2+E
- D score 1-4: <2 months (1) – >8 months (4)
- I score 1-4, with steps of 0.5: Very good (1) – Poor (4)
- C1 score 1-4, with steps of 0.5: Clearly, strongly communicate need (1) – Reluctant (4)
- C2 score 1-4, with steps of 0.5: Eager (1) – Strongly reluctant (4)
- E score 1-4: <10% additional (1) – >40% additional (4)